Weak consumption is a ‘main downside’ for China’s restoration, says analytics agency


A person works in a manufacturing unit of lithium batteries in Huaibei in central China’s Anhui province Saturday, Nov. 14, 2020.

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Persistent weak spot in Chinese consumption will stop companies from charging greater costs — whilst manufacturing prices hold rising, says Leland Miller of China Beige Book International, a U.S.-based unbiased knowledge and analytics agency.

“The most problematic dynamic of China’s recovery — which overall has been very strong in the past year, year and a half — the major problem has been that the consumer’s not all the way back,” Miller, CEO at on the agency, advised CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday.

Until there is a “reset” in family spending, companies won’t be able to boost costs a lot, he defined.

“This is essentially gonna be a problem on the production side and, you know, specifically the factory side.”

Yes, there’s an inflation difficulty. Yes, it is gonna be tough for a number of the events in China.

Leland Miller

China Beige Book International

Miller stated the inflation state of affairs in China proper now’s “very focused” and centered on commodities, in addition to factories which had been being squeezed on value.

“Yes, there’s an inflation issue. Yes, it’s gonna be tricky for some of the parties in China. But specifically … it’s on the production side. It has not moved over to consumer side,” he stated. “It’s a fairly specific problem in China right now, even if it’s rather intense for the time being.”

Covid influence on providers, retail

Following an earlier success in curbing the unfold of Covid-19, which was first reported within the Chinese metropolis of Wuhan, China’s economic system was among the many few in Asia that grew in 2020.

Still, the specter of the virus stays. A current spike in infections in main metropolis Guangzhou surrounding the Delta variant, which was first recognized in India, has led to mass testing and lockdown of native areas.

“You’re seeing a Covid problem that hasn’t gone away,” Miller stated. “As long as Covid is there, you’re gonna have pressure on services, you’re gonna have pressure on retail.”

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Despite being “very stable,” the providers sector in China has failed to interrupt out of its rut, he added.

“Every single that we see a month or two of stronger services, you know, it reverses itself,” Miller stated. “It has not been a driver of the economy and neither has retail.”

“If you wanna see a healthier economy, or any type of normalcy like people talk about normalcies, you should see strong services, stronger retail and less reliance on manufacturing and commodities,” he stated.


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